40% Reduction in Agricultural N/P/Sediment Pollution by 2038
Commitment: Reduce total nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment pollution from agriculture into water by at least 40% by 2038 (vs. 2018 baseline). Environment Act 2021 statutory target.
Owner: Defra
Target date: 31 December 2038 (final); December 2030 (interim: 12% nationally)
Metric: Nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment loads in watercourses from agricultural sources; tracked via Environment Agency’s National Agriculture Programme.
Status: at-risk
Delivery history
- [December 2025] Agriculture Water Quality Target Delivery Plan published. Four-pillar framework confirmed: regulatory (12%), voluntary ELM (3%), land use change (11%), innovation (14%).
- [January 2026] SFI 2026 changes announced — reduces number of actions; reviews payment rates for high-uptake actions that take land out of production. Pillar 2 (voluntary ELM) at risk.
- [2026-04-15] Status: at-risk. Pillar 2 contribution (3%) is directly threatened by SFI changes. Innovation pillar (14%) depends on trial completions 2026-2028.
Key milestones
| Date | Milestone |
|---|---|
| December 2025 | Slurry Infrastructure Grant Round 1 claims deadline |
| 2026 | Bio-stimulant trial results |
| December 2026 | Slurry Infrastructure Grant Round 2 claims deadline |
| 2027 | Slurry separator trial outcomes |
| 2028 | Novel fertiliser field trial completion |
| 2029 | EA inspection funding reaches £12m annually |
| December 2030 | 12% interim target |
| December 2038 | 40% final target |
Tensions
- sfi-simplification-water-quality — SFI January 2026 simplification directly threatens Pillar 2 delivery mechanism