1.5 Million New Homes in England This Parliament
Definition
Deliver 1.5 million new homes in England within this Parliament. The Spring Statement (March 2025) estimated that National Planning Policy Framework changes alone would increase housebuilding by ~30% by 2029-30, delivering 170,000 additional homes and raising GDP by 0.2% (£6.8bn to economy).
Contributing strategies
- planning-infrastructure-act-2025 — Primary enabling legislation (Royal Assent December 2025)
- budget-spending-review-2025 — £39bn Affordable Homes Programme (10 years); £2bn additional housing (2026-27)
- 10yr-infrastructure-strategy — Housing infrastructure in 780-project pipeline
Contributing actions (inputs → outputs → outcome)
| Input | Output | Contribution to outcome |
|---|---|---|
| PIA 2025 — planning committee reform | Faster decisions on major developments | More homes approved |
| PIA 2025 — hope value removal | Cheaper land assembly for affordable housing | More affordable homes viable |
| PIA 2025 — Spatial Development Strategies | Cross-boundary housing planning | Larger-scale housing sites unlocked |
| £39bn Affordable Homes Programme | Funded affordable housing units | Affordable homes delivered |
| NPPF reforms | +30% housebuilding (OBR estimate) | 170,000 additional homes vs. baseline |
| Development corporation powers | Large-scale new towns and regeneration | Sites of significant scale unlocked |
Commitments
- mhclg-housing-1-5m — 1.5 million homes this Parliament; owner: MHCLG
Delivery status: at-risk
Assessment: at-risk, based on:
- Planning reform timing: PIA only received Royal Assent December 2025. The Parliament is already underway. The 30% housebuilding increase estimated by OBR assumes NPPF and PIA reforms are fully implemented and working — this lags.
- Affordable Homes Programme: £39bn is committed over 10 years — the within-Parliament contribution is a fraction of that. Delivery of affordable homes depends on housing associations, local authorities, and development corporations having capacity.
- No new reservoir in 20 years: Water infrastructure constraints limit where housing can be built at scale; PIA enables non-water companies to build reservoirs but this is also new.
- LPA capacity: £362m annual funding shortfall for local planning authorities — addressed in PIA by fee-setting powers, but fees must actually be set at adequate levels.
- Nature Restoration Fund: New mechanism; if Natural England is overwhelmed with EDPs for energy and housing simultaneously, housing approvals slow.
Tensions
- housing-biodiversity — 1.5 million homes and 30by30 land targets; habitat creation of 250,000ha by 2030; Nature Restoration Fund is supposed to reconcile these but is new and untested
- planning-timelines-2030-targets — Parliament ends before 2030; delivery speed is the core constraint
Evidence on progress
Planning permissions data, housing starts, and housing completions monitored by MHCLG. OBR forecasts provide the baseline trajectory against which progress can be measured.