Defence and Security
Overview
The government has committed to the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the Cold War. 2.5% of GDP by 2027; ambition for 3% in next Parliament; 5% on national security (with NATO allies) by 2035. Defence is simultaneously a national security mission and an IS-8 economic growth sector.
Departmental positions
| Department | Position | Key commitment |
|---|---|---|
| MOD | Primary; “engine for UK economic growth” | 2.5% GDP by 2027; National Armaments Director; Office of Defence Exports |
| HMT | Funder; explicit ODA trade-off | Reduces ODA from 0.5% to 0.3% GNI to fund uplift |
| FCDO | Aid/development budget holder; ODA reduction recipient | ODA budget cut from 0.5% → 0.3% GNI |
| DBT | Defence as IS-8 sector | Defence sector plan; dual-use technology |
Strategic coherence assessment
Coherent with explicit stated trade-off:
- The 2.5% GDP target is fully funded — explicitly via ODA reduction. This is a named policy decision, not a gap.
- Defence Industrial Strategy positions defence as economic growth driver with measurable targets (460,000 jobs; £28.8bn UK business spending; defence export ambitions).
- Procurement reform (National Armaments Director; segmented procurement) addresses a known delivery problem.
- Skills: Defence Nuclear Enterprise needs 65,000 workers by 2030 (from 48,000) — competes with clean energy and construction.
Key tensions
- defence-oda-funding — ODA cut to fund defence uplift; explicit named trade-off between security spending and development commitments
- skills-shortage-cross-sector — Defence workforce growth competes with clean energy and other IS-8 sectors
Open questions
- What is the ODA cut’s impact on specific UK development programmes?
- Is the National Armaments Director operational? What procurement reforms have been implemented?
- How is the dual-use technology pipeline (min. 10% of equipment procurement) being measured?